Crédito y Caución forecasts a slowdown in Dutch economic growth in 2019. Although domestic demand remains strong, the credit insurer expects a decrease in export and investment growth.
Dutch exports will be affected by decreased demand from France and Germany, which together represent more than 30% of their destination markets, and by increased uncertainty in world trade. Trade and investment ties with the United Kingdom are very close, and some sectors could suffer a significant impact from Brexit, such as transport, chemicals, electronics, and food.
Starting in 2014, with the economic recovery, bankruptcies began to decrease every year. However, in a context of declining exports and increased economic uncertainty, insolvencies are expected to increase by 3% in 2019.
In 2019, private consumption will continue to benefit from decreased unemployment and increased disposable household income. However, a further deterioration in housing prices poses a potential risk, given the high level of mortgage debt and banks' exposure to the real estate market. Any significant downward correction would negatively affect household consumption and the stability of the financial sector.
