The European Union's (EU) agri-food trade remained robust in the first half of 2025, even in the face of pressure from higher agricultural commodity prices and fluctuations in global demand. Recent data from the European Commission show that, despite a slight monthly slowdown in June, exports remain above 2024 levels, while imports, although more expensive, registered a significant increase.

Overall, the sector's trade balance grew again in June, reaching €3,8 billion, 32% more than in May. However, the accumulated surplus for the first half of the year (€21,9 billion) was 33% lower than that recorded in the same period last year, mainly due to the increased cost of imports.

Exports: chocolate and dairy products drive growth.

EU agri-food exports totaled €19,1 billion in June, down 4% from May, but still 2% above June 2024. For the first half of the year, exports totaled €118,7 billion, an increase of €2 billion (+2%) compared to the same period of the previous year.

The United Kingdom remained the main destination, with €27,6 billion (+5%), driven primarily by rising cocoa and chocolate prices. The United States and Switzerland complete the top three largest markets.

On the other hand, exports to China fell by 670 million euros (-10%), reflecting the drop in demand for cereals, and those destined for Thailand decreased by 242 million euros.

Cocoa and coffee-based products were the main drivers of growth. Exports of coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices rose 38% (+€1,8 billion), accompanied by a 30% increase in coffee prices and an almost doubling of cocoa paste, butter, and powder prices. Exports of chocolate and confectionery grew 20% (+€1 billion), and dairy exports increased 7% (+€635 million), despite lower volumes.

In contrast, the cereals sector suffered a sharp contraction: exports fell by 22% (-€1,5 billion), due to a 27% drop in volumes. Sales of olive oil and olives fell by 15% (-€572 million), with falling prices offsetting increased quantities.

Imports: more expensive

EU agri-food imports reached €15,3 billion in June, 10% less than in May, but 15% higher than in June 2024. Between January and June, external purchases totaled €96,8 billion, a significant increase of 16% (+€13,5 billion) compared to the same period of the previous year.

Ivory Coast recorded the largest growth (+66%), reflecting the surge in cocoa prices, followed by Canada (+101%), due to increased imports of cereals and rapeseed. China (+22%) and Brazil (+10%) also recorded strong increases, while imports from Ukraine (-13%) and Russia (-73%) decreased significantly.

High commodity prices explain much of this evolution. Imports of coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices increased by 60% (+€8,1 billion), while those of fruits and nuts rose by 18% (+€2,3 billion). Confectionery and chocolate products grew by 36% (+€433 million), and non-food goods increased by 10% (+€492 million). Purchases of poultry and eggs registered a 30% increase (+€356 million).

Conversely, imports of olive oil and olives fell by 43% (-€466 million) and those of sugar and isoglucose decreased by 32% (-€332 million).

Pressured margins

Despite the sector's resilience and solid external demand, the sharp rise in raw material prices and import costs continues to put pressure on trade margins. The EU trade surplus in the first half of 2025 fell by €10,9 billion (-33%) compared to the same period last year, highlighting the direct impact of global inflation on agri-food flows.

Nevertheless, analysts believe that the performance of European agri-food trade demonstrates a remarkable capacity for adaptation, remaining dynamic and competitive even in a scenario marked by geopolitical instability, price volatility, and changes in global demand.

With the agri-food sector playing a central role in European external trade, the second half of 2025 will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of this trend, especially if global commodity prices remain high.