The Christmas season is expected to bring fewer seasonal hires to the US retail sector. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the sector is expected to create around 450 seasonal jobs in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from 461,5 hires in 2025.

Last year's figure was already one of the lowest in the last two decades, reinforcing the idea of a structural change in how major operators size their teams for the peak season.

From 543 to 450 in two years.

In 2024, the US retail sector created approximately 543,1 seasonal jobs. If the 2026 estimate is confirmed, the sector will have reduced the number of temporary hires by about 17% in just two years.

Evolution doesn't necessarily mean less commercial activity, but rather reflects more cautious cost management and greater use of permanent teams, flexible schedules, and automation. Many operators are choosing to increase the availability of existing teams, redistribute schedules, and adopt more flexible work models, instead of opening large temporary recruitment positions.

Warehouse automation, order picking, self-checkout , and inventory management systems also contribute to reducing the labor intensity required in some processes.

The growth of e-commerce has also shifted some of the seasonal recruitment from stores to distribution centers, logistics, and last-mile delivery.

Portugal continues to strengthen its teams during the peak season.

In Portugal, the scenario seems, for now, different. There is still no aggregate estimate for the number of seasonal hires expected for Christmas 2026, but recruitment companies continue to identify Black Friday and Christmas as periods of strong increase in demand for temporary workers. Eurofirms, for example, states that retail, e-commerce , logistics, distribution, warehouses and customer support are among the areas where companies most reinforce their teams during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Another example comes from Randstad Portugal, which currently has hundreds of seasonal opportunities available from north to south of the country for the peak season , including roles in logistics, warehouse, production and customer service.

Randstad continues to characterize Black Friday, Christmas, and the period of returns and promotions as one of the most intense phases of the retail job market. In data relating to the previous peak season , released in 2025, the company recorded growth in demand for professionals between 10% and 30% compared to 2024, particularly in retail, food industry, and logistics.

This data predates the 2026 campaign and therefore does not allow us to conclude that the same growth will be repeated this year. However, it does show that the Portuguese market has maintained a strong seasonality towards the end of the year.

Temporary work remains central in Portugal.

Randstad also emphasizes that integrating temporary teams remains one of the most effective strategies for managing the peak season in Portugal. In content published on October 1st, the company recommends that organizations prepare for these periods several months in advance and highlights temporary work as a tool to adjust team size to actual demand. This logic is particularly relevant in sectors where the increase in activity is highly concentrated in time, such as retail, the food industry, logistics, and e- commerce.