In 2023, global cereal production will increase by 0,9% compared to the previous year, reaching 2.815 billion tons, matching the record achieved in 2021, according to estimates from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Although global wheat production is expected to decrease by 2,6% compared to 2022, total coarse cereal production is projected to increase by 2,7%, and corn production is expected to reach a new record of 1.215 million tons, driven by Brazil and Ukraine. Despite a slight downward revision since July, global rice production is still expected to recover, increasing by 1,1% compared to the previous season.

Booking

According to the forecast, global cereal utilization in the next season will be 2.807 million tons, 0,8% above the 2022/23 level.

Global cereal reserves at the end of the 2023/24 marketing years are expected to stand at 878 million tons, representing an annual increase of 2,2%, pointing to a global stocks-to-utilization ratio of 30,5%, which the FAO considers a "relatively low level of global supply from a historical perspective".

Global rice reserves are estimated to reach a record high of 198,1 million tons, driven by India, which, along with China, holds about three-quarters of this volume, as in previous years. Globally, rice stocks held by other countries are expected to contract for the second consecutive time, reaching 51,4 million tons, the lowest level in four years.

Forecasts

The FAO has lowered its forecast for world cereal trade in 2023/24 to 466 million tons, a 1,7% decrease compared to the previous marketing year. Trade volumes for wheat and maize are expected to decline due to a combination of reasons, including a drop in exports from Ukraine following trade disruptions associated with the war.

The FAO also reduced its forecast for world rice trade from July onwards, taking into account stricter export restrictions from India. Although the duration of these restrictions and the extent of their application are uncertain, if they are prolonged and if El Niño causes production difficulties in other Asian exporting countries, they could make the recovery of rice trade in 2024 modest, the organization indicates.