The global retail market is expected to reach $25,038 trillion, or about €22,5 trillion, in 2019, according to a study by eMarketer.
This figure represents a growth of 4,5% compared to last year, but simultaneously a decrease compared to the previous five years, when sales grew between 5,7% and 7,5% each year.
This slowdown in consumer spending over the past two years reflects growing economic uncertainty and a weakening economic environment in many parts of the world. The Chinese economy, which has been growing for the past 10 years, has seen considerable stabilization in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an indicator that has also stagnated in several European countries. Even a more dynamic economy like the US seems to have seen better days.
E-commerce is growing at a double-digit rate.
Given this scenario, eMarketer projects that e-commerce will grow globally by 20,7% in 2018, reaching approximately €3,2 trillion. This figure, however, represents a decrease compared to the last two years, when e-commerce grew by 28% (2017) and 22,9% (2018). In 2021, the consultancy estimates that global e-commerce will reach €4,5 trillion, although growth rates will fall below 20% from next year onwards.
Despite the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to lead in terms of growth rates. This year, the region is expected to grow by 25%, reaching two trillion euros, representing 64,3% of global e-commerce spending.
Latin America and the Middle East and Africa region will experience similar annual growth rates, around 21,3%, exceeding the global average, while North America, at 14,5%, and Western Europe, at 10,2%, will show lower rates.
Six of the 10 countries with the highest growth in e-commerce in 2019 are located in the Asia-Pacific region, with India and the Philippines leading the way, with expected growth of over 30%. China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea also stand out.
But the country with the highest growth this year will be Mexico, with 35%. The remaining places in the top 10 are occupied by Canada, with 21,1%, and Russia, with 18,7%.
China as the main e-commerce market
This year, China will be the leading e-commerce market, with sales worth €1,7 trillion, three times more than the United States, which is approximately €525 billion.
The Asian country represents 54,7% of the global e-commerce market, a share that is double that of the next five countries combined.
Several factors explain China's prominent leadership. eMarketer points to mobile commerce, with 80% of e-commerce revenue in the country being generated through this channel, compared to the global average of 64,4%.
Another catalyst is mobile payments, with Chinese consumers relying on apps like Alipay to pay for their purchases, both online and in physical stores. Around 81% of smartphone users in China will use mobile payments this year, compared to just 27% in the United States.
But cross-border trade has also contributed to China's development. With improved infrastructure, more and more small businesses are gaining access to the global market.
Western Europe has three of its main e-commerce markets, with the United Kingdom leading at €127 billion, followed by Germany at €74 billion and France at €63 billion. However, as is the case in most more mature markets, their annual growth rates are below average.
