International commodity markets are facing a new phase of price pressure, with potential repercussions for the food industry and supply chains.

According to the October 2026 edition of the "Commodity Markets Outlook" report, released on October 28, the World Bank forecasts that food commodity prices will increase by approximately 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, representing a cumulative increase of nearly 18% compared to 2025.

The evolution reflects a combination of factors that are simultaneously affecting agricultural supply, transportation, and production costs.

Energy costs are expected to increase by 32% in 2026.

The World Bank predicts a 32% rise in international energy prices in 2026, after three years of declines.

The average price of a barrel of Brent crude is expected to reach $91, compared to $69 in 2025, before falling back to $79 in 2027.

Energy pressure could affect agricultural and food production through the fuels used in production and transportation, refrigeration costs, and fertilizer manufacturing.

In the latter case, the agency forecasts a 14% increase in prices in 2026, followed by a normalization in 2027 to levels close to those observed in 2025.

El Niño and conflicts threaten agricultural production.

The World Bank identifies disruptions to grain transport routes, international conflicts, and the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon as significant risks to food supply.

A particularly severe weather event could affect harvests in different producing regions, exacerbating price volatility.

In an adverse scenario, characterized by a combination of energy disruptions, attacks on grain transport, and extreme weather conditions, food raw materials could be 12% higher than the levels projected in the central scenario for 2027. The organization considers that this development could intensify food insecurity and increase pressure on lower-income populations.

Industry and retail facing new challenges

For manufacturers and distributors, a prolonged rise in international raw material prices could translate into higher acquisition, production, and logistics costs.

The magnitude of the impact will depend, however, on exchange rate fluctuations, supply contracts, market conditions, and the capacity to absorb costs along the supply chain.

It is important to distinguish the international forecast of food inflation for consumers: the 18% refers to a price index for raw food commodities, and does not necessarily mean that prices in supermarkets will increase by that amount.