The 2026 Christmas season in the United States is expected to be marked by greater restraint and selectivity in purchases, but not by a generalized decline in consumption.

This is one of the main conclusions of the “2026 US Holiday Purchase Intentions Study” by Circana, conducted with 3.534 American consumers. The study shows that the average budget planned for the holiday season drops to $779, approximately €696, compared to $796, approximately €711, in 2025.

Still, more than one in five consumers plans to spend over $1.000, about €894, a sign that financial pressure is not eliminating the willingness to consume, but is making it more selective.

74% plan to adopt savings strategies.

The search for value should be the main theme of this campaign. According to Circana, 74% of American consumers intend to adopt some form of savings behavior, including buying more products on sale, actively seeking discounts, using private label brands more often, and reducing spending in categories considered less of a priority.

This behavior reflects pressure that extends beyond inflation: even when prices stop rising at the rate seen in recent years, the accumulated level of costs remains high and strains household budgets.

29% expect to spend more, but often because of prices.

The restraint doesn't mean all consumers are cutting back on spending. Around 29% say they expect to spend more than last Christmas. However, more than half of this group indicates that the main reason is precisely the increase in prices, and not necessarily a larger quantity of purchases.

This difference is important: nominal spending growth does not automatically equate to real consumption growth. For retailers and brands, this means that sales value can continue to grow even if consumers buy fewer units or choose cheaper products.

Market between -1% and +2,5%

Given this combination of financial pressure and resilient consumption, Circana anticipates that sales in the fourth quarter could range from a 1% decline to a 2,5% increase compared to 2025. The relatively wide range reflects uncertainty surrounding factors such as prices, consumer confidence, promotional intensity, and the evolution of essential spending.

The company's analysis, however, is clear: consumers are not abandoning Christmas, but are redefining where it is worthwhile to spend. One of the most visible changes is in the redistribution of the budget. More than a third of consumers say they are canceling or postponing Christmas trips due to high costs, channeling part of that expense towards celebrations at home, gifts, and meals. This evolution may favor categories such as food and beverages, prepared meals, catering , products for entertaining at home, decorations, and gifts.

Promotion remains important, but it's no longer enough.

Circana also notes that promotions remain crucial, especially during periods like Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. More than half of consumers intend to start shopping before Thanksgiving, which falls on the fourth Thursday of November, although these major promotional events continue to be decisive moments for generating traffic and conversions. However, the company warns that discounts alone may not be enough.

Consumers are increasingly looking for a combination of...
Price, relevance, usefulness, convenience, and emotional significance. In other words, a promotion can bring the consumer to the store or... websiteBut the product still needs to justify the purchase.

Gifts are becoming more selective and personal.

Consumers continue to protect opportunities for deals. According to Circana, categories that combine utility and personal meaning present good opportunities, including wellness , personalized gifts, collectibles, experiences, and products for the connected home.

This trend reinforces a shift that has emerged in several recent studies: in an environment of greater financial pressure, consumers do not necessarily eliminate discretionary spending, but become more demanding about what they consider "worthy" of their budget.

Social media and AI are increasingly influencing choices.

The discovery process is also changing. 57% of consumers say they would likely buy a product after seeing it on social media, a percentage that rises to 82% among Generation Z.

Among consumers who watch product review videos, nearly seven out of ten say that this content influences their decisions.

Circana also identifies a strong openness to recommendations from artificial intelligence tools among consumers who already use AI-based shopping assistants.

The United Kingdom presents a more optimistic consumer.

The trend of greater caution is not, however, uniform. In the United Kingdom, a PwC study published in September shows a more optimistic consumer: 25% expect to spend more at Christmas 2026, while 21% predict spending less. This is the first time since the post-pandemic period that more consumers anticipate an increase rather than a decrease in spending.

Nevertheless, the cost of living remains a central issue. Among Britons planning to spend less, 73% cite the rising cost of living as the main reason. In other words, even in a market with greater confidence, consumers continue to manage their budgets very selectively.

Another common point among the markets is anticipation. In the United Kingdom, 14% had already started their Christmas shopping in mid-August, and another 16% planned to buy earlier than the previous year. This anticipation extends the Christmas campaign and increases the importance of promotions and communication before the traditional Black Friday.

Portugal is also showing strong demand for promotions.

In Portugal, there is still no aggregate forecast for average spending for Christmas 2026 directly comparable to the €696 projected in the United States. However, the available data for the peak season shows similar signs of demand for value.

A Google Consumer Survey revealed that 44% of Portuguese consumers intend to shop on Black Friday or Cyber Monday . Among those planning to make purchases, 35% say they will wait to see what goes on sale, while 34% intend to plan their purchases in advance. This pattern is consistent with a more rational consumer, attentive to price and promotional timing .

The connection between Black Friday and Christmas is also well established in Portugal.

Data published on the 2025 campaign showed that 44% of Portuguese people considered Black Friday the ideal time to buy Christmas presents , while 64% said they expected to buy the same or more through digital channels.

More recently, Eupago's first Pagometer pointed to growth of close to 10% in Portuguese online sales in 2026 , with Black Friday and Christmas among the decisive periods of the last quarter.